Suppose that the probability that a neuron fires in a short period of time, say , is constant and equal to and does not depend on the moment in time . Define the function as
The function is a solution of the initial value problem
The solution is equal to
From the definition of the function follows
After all, the probability that the neuron does not fire in the interval
is equal to the product of the probability that the neuron does not fire in the interval
and the probability that the neuron does not fire in the interval
.
So we know:
When choosing
smaller and smaller, we obtain in the limiting case
resulting in the differential equation
At time
, the neuron has not yet been able to fire; thus
.
The function is therefore a solution of the initial value problem
but this is part of an exponential decay process, and so the solution is equal to
For the function satisfies the initial value problem
and the solution is equal to
From the definition of the function follows
After all, the probability that the neuron fires
times in the interval
is equal to the product of the probability that the neuron fires
times in the interval
and not in the interval
plus the probability that the neuron fires
time in the interval
and once in the interval
.
So we know:
When we choose
smaller and smaller, then we obtain the limiting case
which results in the differential equation
At time
the neuron has not yet been able to fire so
.
The explicit formula for can be obtained by the method of induction. But is more convenient to define
and verify (do it yourself!) that this results in
and then prove that
For we have
so
For we have
so
Suppose that the assertion is true for , then this also applies to . After all
and thus